World misled over glacier meltdown: Report

London: A warning that most of the Himalayan glaciers will melt by 2035 owing to climate change is likely to be retracted after the United Nations body that issued it admitted to a series of scientific blunders.

Two years ago, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) headed by India’s Rajendra Pachauri, issued a benchmark report that claimed to have incorporated the latest and most detailed research into the impact of global warming.

A central claim was that world’s glaciers were melting so fast that those in the Himalayas could vanish by 2035.

In the last few days the scientists behind the warning have admitted that it was based on a news story in the New Scientist, a popular science journal, published eight years before the IPCC’s 2007 report, The Sunday Times reported on Sunday.

It has also emerged that the New Scientist report was itself based on a short telephonic interview with Syed Hasnain, an Indian scientist then based at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi, the report said.

Hasnain has since admitted that the claim was a “speculation” and was not supported by any formal research, the report added.

If confirmed it would be one of the most serious failures yet seen in climate research.

The IPCC was set up to ensure that world leaders had the best possible scientific advice on climate change.

Rajendra Pachauri has previously dismissed criticism of the Himalayas claim as “voodoo science” and last week the IPCC refused to comment on the report.

From IBNLIVE

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WWF: Himalayan melting by 2035? Scientists just assumed so

 warning that climate change will melt most of the Himalayan glaciers by 2035 is likely to be retracted after the United Nations body that issued it admitted a series of scientific blunders.

Two years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a benchmark report that was claimed to incorporate the latest and most detailed research into the impact of global warming. A central claim was that the world’s glaciers were melting so fast that those in the Himalayas could vanish by 2035.

In the past few days, the scientists behind the warning have admitted that it was based on a news story in the New Scientist, a popular science journal, published eight years before the IPCC’s 2007 report.

It has also emerged that the New Scientist report was itself based on a short telephone interview with Syed Hasnain, an obscure Indian scientist then based at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi. Hasnain has since admitted that the claim was “speculation” and not supported by any formal research.

If confirmed, it would be one of the most serious failures yet seen in climate research. The IPCC was set up precisely to ensure that world leaders had the best possible scientific advice on climate change.

Murari Lal, who oversaw the chapter on glaciers in the IPCC report, said he would recommend that the claim about glaciers be dropped: “If Hasnain says officially that he never asserted this, or that it is a wrong presumption, than I will recommend that the assertion about Himalayan glaciers be removed from future IPCC assessments.”

The IPCC’s reliance on Hasnain’s 1999 interview has been highlighted by Fred Pearce, the journalist who carried out the original interview for the New Scientist. Pearce said he rang Hasnain in India in 1999 after spotting his claims in an Indian magazine.

Pearce said: “Hasnain told me then that he was bringing a report containing those numbers to Britain. The report had not been peer reviewed or formally published in a scientific journal and it had no formal status so I reported his work on that basis.

“Since then I have obtained a copy and it does not say what Hasnain said. In other words it does not mention 2035 as a date by which any Himalayan glaciers will melt. However, he did make clear that his comments related only to part of the Himalayan glaciers. not the whole massif.”

The New Scientist report was apparently forgotten until 2005 when WWF cited it in a report called An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China. The report credited Hasnain’s 1999 interview with the New Scientist. But it was a campaigning report rather than an academic paper.

Despite this it rapidly became a key source for the IPCC when Lal and his colleagues came to write the section on the Himalayas.

When finally published, the IPCC report did give its source as the WWF study but went further, suggesting the melting of the glaciers was “very likely”. The IPCC defines “very likely” as having a probability of greater than 90%.

Glaciologists find such figures inherently ludicrous, pointing out that most Himalayan glaciers are hundreds of feet thick and could not melt fast enough to vanish by 2035 unless there was a huge global temperature rise.

Julian Dowdeswell, director of the Scott Polar Research Institute at Cambridge University, said: “A small glacier such as the Dokriani glacier is up to 120m thick. A big one would be several hundred metres thick and tens of kilometres long. The average is 300m thick so to melt one at 5m a year would take 60 years.”

Some scientists have questioned how the IPCC could have allowed such a mistake into print. Perhaps the most likely reason was lack of expertise. Lal himself admits he knows little about glaciers. “I am not an expert. The comments in the WWF report were made by a respected Indian scientist and it was reasonable to assume he knew what he was talking about,” he said.

The IPCC last week refused to comment so it has yet to explain how someone who admits to little expertise on glaciers was overseeing such a report. Perhaps its one consolation is that the blunder was picked up by climate scientists who rushed to make it public.

The lead role in that process was played by Graham Cogley, a geographer from Trent University in Ontario, Canada, who had long been unhappy with the IPCC’s finding.

He traced the IPCC claim back to the New Scientist and then contacted Pearce. Pearce then re-interviewed Hasnain, who confirmed that his 1999 comments had been “speculative”, and published the update in the New Scientist. “The reality, that the glaciers are wasting away, is bad enough. But they are not wasting away at the rate suggested by this speculative remark and the IPCC report,” Cogley said.

“The problem is that nobody who studied this material bothered chasing the trail back to the original point when the claim first arose.”

Pearce said the IPCC’s reliance on the WWF was “immensely lazy”. Hasnain could not be reached for comment

From TOI

Siachen glacier – Global Warming

Bangalore: Running against a stream of mounting evidence that Himalayan glaciers, like others elsewhere in the world, are melting due to global warming, a report in the 10 August issue of Current Science journal has said that the Siachen glacier has not been affected by the rise in global temperatures.

Annual weather variations and not global warming the root cause for Siachen meltdown, say experts

Annual weather variations and not global warming the root cause for Siachen meltdown, say experts

Based on field studies in the summer of 2008, authors M.N. Koul and R.K. Ganjoo of the Regional Centre for Field Operations and Research on Himalayan glaciology at the University of Jammu, said: “Overwhelming field geo-morphological evidences suggest poor response of the Siachen glacier to global warming.”

It’s annual weather variations and not global warming that are causing the melting of the Siachen glacier in north-western Himalayas, they said.

According to this study, the snout, or the lowest end of the glacier, has retreated by about 8-10m since 1995, amounting to an average retreat of 0.6m a year. On the east side, the Siachen glacier shows fast withdrawal of the snout, which is essentially due to ice calving—the sudden release and breaking away of a mass of ice from a glacier—and is true for almost all major glaciers in the Himalayas and happens irrespective of global warming. On the west, the glacier has reduced due to the melting water coming from a retreated tributary glacier.

“The Siachen glacier shows hardly any retreat in its middle part and thus defies the hype,” the authors wrote. Their claim is in response to a study published earlier this year by researchers of the Kumaun University in Nainital, Uttarakhand, which said that there is geological evidence to show that the Siachen glacier has retreated by almost half in the past few decades due to global warming.

Seasoned glaciologists, however, don’t concur with the latest findings.

“Ganjoo’s observation is suspect as another study in the north-western Himalayas by some Defence Research and Development Organization scientists have shown that the temperature is rising,” said D.P. Dobhal, a glaciologist at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology in Dehradun, who studies two Himalayan glaciers, including the Dokrianai glacier.

Dobhal doubted the findings of this study as he thinks Ganjoo hasn’t “studied the region long enough” and one seasonal field study is not sufficient to make “such overarching claims”. “You need long-term data to come to any conclusion,” he said.

Another glaciologist, Sayed Iqbal Hasnain at The Energy and Research Institute in New Delhi, who has set up a weather station in Kashmir to study the Kolahoi glacier, rubbished Ganjoo’s study because it lacks “scientific data”.

“The snout of a glacier is not the right metric to study the change. The mass of the glacier, which changes due to the (ice) accumulation, needs to be studied, ideally via satellite and optical sensors,” he said.

India has never undertaken any systematic study of any glacier, hence, has no benchmark glacier till date for long-term studies, said Hasnain.

But under environment minister Jairam Ramesh, a white paper on the Himalayan glaciers has been prepared, which Hasnain is reviewing.

seema.s@livemint.com

By Seema Singh from LIVE MINT